Drivers of Informal Settlement Growth and Land Use Change in Dar es Salaam: Insights from Remote Sensing and GIS (1995-2024)

Abstract

Rapid urbanization presents critical challenges, particularly in managing the growth of informal settlements. Effective urban planning is essential to address this issue, yet it often falls short in rapidly growing cities like Dar es Salaam. This study aims to explore the drivers behind informal settlement expansion and assess the consequences of inadequate urban planning.  This study integrates quantitative analysis using Landsat imagery and spatial analysis with ArcGIS Pro, alongside qualitative data from focus groups and interviews. Land cover changes from 1995 to 2024 were evaluated using supervised image classification, employing a machine learning random forest classifier in R to create land use/land cover classes. The analysis reveals significant changes in land use. Agricultural areas increased from 396.7 km² to 555.17 km², while built-up areas expanded from 72.55 km² to 403.44 km². In contrast, forest, bushland, and grassland areas declined significantly. Key drivers of informal settlement growth include financial constraints, political interference, formalization challenges, and poor coordination among stakeholders. Financial limitations impede comprehensive planning and infrastructure development, while political interference weakens land-use policies. Bureaucratic and financial barriers to formalization lead to unauthorized construction, and a lack of institutional coordination exacerbates fragmented planning and informal industrial growth. Addressing the rapid expansion of informal settlements requires financial investment, political commitment, improved coordination, and public awareness to support sustainable urban planning. The study presents a novel approach by integrating quantitative analysis using Landsat imagery and machine learning techniques with qualitative insights from focus groups and interviews, providing a comprehensive examination of both spatial and socio-political drivers of informal settlement expansion in Dar es Salaam, and offering a unique perspective on land use changes and urban planning challenges